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MOORE’S LAW. CAN SEE WHY THE DRIVER IS HOLDING ON FOR DEAR LIFE IT’S TIGHT.
Is Moore's Law Still Holding in 2025?
Short answer: **No, not in its classic form**, but the semiconductor industry is still delivering exponential progress—it's just evolving beyond simple transistor scaling. The original Moore's Law (doubling transistor counts every ~2 years at constant or falling cost) has slowed due to physical limits, but innovations like 3D stacking, specialized architectures, and new materials keep computing power growing. We're in a "post-Moore" era where the *effective* pace continues, driven by "More than Moore" strategies.
#### Why It's Slowing
- **Physical Barriers**: Transistors are now ~2-3nm wide (near atomic scales), making further shrinkage expensive and heat-intensive. "Dark silicon" (unused chip areas due to power constraints) is a growing issue.
- **Slower Doubling**: Recent data shows transistor *density* (per mm²) doubling every ~3-4 years, not 2. Total counts per chip still rise (e.g., NVIDIA's GB202 GPU hit 92 billion transistors in 2025), but not at the historical clip.
- **Expert Consensus**: Figures like NVIDIA's Jensen Huang called it "dead" in 2022, and Stanford's Mark Horowitz echoed in 2025 that it's "basically over" for raw scaling. Gordon Moore himself predicted an end around now.
| Year | Chip Example | Transistor Count (Billions) | Node Size | Notes |
|------|--------------|-----------------------------|-----------|-------|
| 2021 | NVIDIA A100 GPU | ~54 | 7nm | Peak of ~2-year doubling era. |
| 2023 | Apple M3 SoC | ~37 | 3nm | Growth slowed; focus on efficiency. |
| 2024 | NVIDIA H200 GPU | ~80 | 4nm (custom) | ~1.5x increase in 3 years. |
| 2025 | NVIDIA GB202 GPU | 92+ | 3nm | Incremental; total chip area grew to fit more. |
| 2025 (upcoming) | Intel 20A CPU | ~100 (est.) | 2nm | Pushes boundaries but with higher costs. |