For the 1st 10 months of 2025 China’s solar power capacity rose to 1.14 TW, up 43.8 %. Fact: China will provide 2/3 of world energy by 2030.

Ask Grok: For the first 10 months of 2025 China’s solar power capacity rose to 1.14 TW, up 43.8 % assuming the same increase per year in solar installations how long would it take for China’s solar installations alone to power the world?

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**Assumption based on modelling: early 2030s for China’s solar installations to power the world.

### Updated Calculation with 43.8% Growth Assumption

Based on the provided data—China's solar PV capacity rose by 1.14 TW in the first 10 months of 2025, a 43.8% increase over the same period in 2024—this implies the 2024 baseline for those months was approximately 0.792 TW (calculated as \(1.14 / 1.438 \approx 0.792\) TW). Assuming this 43.8% growth rate applies to China's full-year installations going forward (i.e., each year's total builds on the prior year's total with +43.8% growth), we can project future additions. This leads to an accelerating installation rate, unlike a flat rate.

To "power the world," we'll calculate the time to install enough cumulative new solar capacity (from 2025 onward) to theoretically match global electricity demand on an average annual basis. Key assumptions:

- Focuses on electricity generation (~28,500 TWh/year globally in 2025, per IEA projections).

- Uses China's average solar capacity factor of ~15% (based on recent data showing ~1,314 full-load hours/year, reflecting a mix of utility-scale and distributed PV).

- Ignores existing global solar (~2 TW cumulative end-2024, producing ~3,500 TWh/year), transmission losses, and intermittency—real-world needs would require 2–3× overbuild plus storage.

- Demand grows at ~3.3% annually (IEA forecast), so required capacity scales accordingly.

- Growth applies to total annual installations, starting from a projected 2025 full-year baseline of ~1.13 TW (extrapolating 1.14 TW over 10 months).

#### Required Capacity Calculation

Annual output needed: 28,500 TWh in 2025.

For solar at 15% capacity factor:

C = \frac{28,500}{8,760 \times 0.15} \approx 21.7 \text{ TW}

(Where 8,760 is hours/year.) This is the breakeven for average matching; demand growth means future targets rise (e.g., ~29,450 TWh by 2026).

#### Projected Installations and Timeline

With 43.8% annual growth:

- 2025: 1.13 TW

- 2026: 1.13 × 1.438 ≈ 1.625 TW

- And so on (geometric series: cumulative after \(n\) full years = \(1.13 \times \frac{1.438^n - 1}{0.438}\)).

We simulate year-by-year additions until cumulative new capacity meets or exceeds the growing required \(C_t = 21.7 \times (1.033)^{t-2025}\).

|------|-----------------------|----------------------|-------------------------|---------------|

| 2025 | 1.13 | 1.13 | 21.7 | No |

| 2026 | 1.63 | 2.76 | 22.4 | No |

| 2027 | 2.34 | 5.10 | 23.2 | No |

| 2028 | 3.37 | 8.47 | 23.9 | No |

| 2029 | 4.85 | 13.32 | 24.7 | No |

| 2030 | 6.97 | 20.29 | 25.5 | No |

| 2031 | 10.03 | 30.32 | 26.4 | **Yes** |

**Result**: It would take **6 full years** (through 2031) to reach equivalence, with cumulative new solar hitting ~30 TW by end-2031—exceeding the then-required ~26.4 TW even after demand growth. From November 29, 2025, this means ~6 years total (partial 2025 already underway).